We are constantly being told that the current economic crisis is like no other - due to the sheer scale and global nature of the financial meltdown and subsequent recession -  and that even the Wall Street Crash and subsequent Great Depression of the 1930s is an inadequate comparison to the situation today.

Nonetheless the distinct pattern in the events leading up to and following the financial meltdown have been fairly predictable.

First, while it is easy to be wise after the event, there were signs of the crisis to come, which most either failed to see or chose to ignore. And when these problems began surfacing, they were not at first immediate and dramatic but rather a series of shockwaves that started with the collapse of the sub-prime mortgage market in the US in mid-2007 and culminated with the full-scale financial tsunami and collapse of the world's financial markets in October 2008.

Second, this collapse has been followed by recession, despite the best efforts of many governments to avert this or at least mitigate its worst effects. The success or otherwise of government intervention remains to be seen, as does the financial cost for years, if not generations, to come.

And third, just as recession followed the financial collapse, so has increased criminality in the wake of shrinking incomes and rising unemployment.

None of this should have been unexpected. Indeed, it presents a depressingly predictable pattern regardless of the root causes.

Theft and Counterfeiting

Increased criminality in the currency sector relates to both theft and counterfeiting - and there appears to be evidence now that the latter is on the increase, if the latest figures from the ECB, the Bank of England and others are anything to go by. It is not possible, at this early juncture, to determine whether these figures are the result of an increase in organised crime or casual, so-called opportunistic counterfeiting. 'Professional' criminals need little excuse to ply their trade at the best of times, but opportunist crimes are more likely to rise in times of economic hardship.

Either way, we shouldn't be surprised, and neither should we be too alarmed. The latest figures nowithstanding, the financial cost of counterfeiting remains small compared with, for example, product counterfeiting or payment card fraud.

As for the argument that it is not so much the financial consequences of currency counterfeiting that matters as the damage it does to public confidence, this is certainly more of a concern. However one of the defining characteristics of the currency sector is its constant vigilance in the expectation of attack, perceived or real. Currency issuers have always assumed the worst - to the extent, as has sometimes been argued in the recent past, that the investment made in securing banknotes is out of all proportion to the problem itself.

Vigilance to be Welcomed

But at times like this, such vigilance is to be welcomed. Most will agree that financial institutions and governments have been staggeringly complacent. The same cannot be said of note issuers. Seldom has a month gone by in recent years without the issue of new designs or series somewhere in the world, invariably accompanied by the statement that such actions are pre-emptive, regardless of whether there is an issue with counterfeiting. (Indeed, there sometimes appears to be an inverse relationship between the vulnerability of a country's currency and the sophistication of the new features it adopts.) 'Keeping one step ahead of the counterfeiters' is a mantra that most issuers seem to chant. Now, more than ever, this mantra is relevant.

By assuming the worst and taking appropriate preventive steps - through increasing the rate at which new features or designs are introduced, adopting sleeper features, implementing extensive programmes of investment and assessment, working closely with law enforcement, educating the public and so on - note issuers are extremely well-positioned to respond to the increased incidence of counterfeiting. Caution, pessimism even, during the good times has meant that they are well able to deal with the problems that happen in the bad times.

If only our governments had taken their lead from this culture, our financial systems and economies would undoubtedly be much better off as a result.