The global debate about cash is often framed as a crisis of decline: fewer people using notes and coins, shrinking acceptance at the point of sale, and the rapid spread of digital alternatives.
In many advanced economies, this narrative feels plausible. Bank branches have closed, ATMs have disappeared, retailers increasingly prefer cards or mobile payments, and policymakers are asking how to preserve access to cash for those who still need it.
Yet two recent contributions – Currency Research’s (CR) survey of 37 central banks and the Global Currency Forum’s (GCF) session on high-volume cash economies – suggest that this framing is too narrow. The world is not moving simply from cash to digital. In most places, it is moving towards cash and digital together.
The reason the issue commands such attention is understandable. When cash use falls, the supporting infrastructure can unravel quickly. Commercial banks, retailers and service providers respond to declining volumes by cutting costs, while governments and central banks tend to move more slowly. The result can be a sudden loss of cash access and acceptance, particularly for vulnerable groups.
Cash has long been treated as a monetary anchor, a universal means of payment and the fallback option in emergencies. If that system weakens before an alternative with the same qualities exists, the consequences are significant.
But the deeper problem is that much of the discussion is shaped by the experience of mature economies. These countries have the resources to measure, analyse and publish their concerns, and they have been at the leading edge of the move to people making fewer cash payments.
Their experience is important, but it is not universal. In many emerging and highvolume economies, the central challenge is not how to manage the disappearance of cash, but how to build, finance and modernise the infrastructure needed to cope with its continued growth.
CR’s report makes this point starkly. Of the 37 central banks surveyed across six continents, only three reported declining cash in circulation. In 31 countries it was growing, and in three it was stable. In developing economies, annual growth of 7-12% is typical, driven by population growth, financial inclusion needs, informal economic activity and limited digital infrastructure. Even where digital payments are expanding rapidly, cash often continues to rise in absolute terms.
This produces a more nuanced picture than the familiar rhetoric of inevitable decline. Africa, South Africa apart, continues to show strong cash growth. The Americas remain heavily cash dependent, although Brazil is a notable exception in relative terms. Asia-Pacific is seeing vigorous digital adoption, but not the end of cash. Europe is experiencing more gradual decline. The Middle East is harder to generalise from the survey, but individual country evidence points to complex hybrid use.
Overall, the evidence suggests divergence between the global north and global south rather than a single global trajectory.
Digital payments are undoubtedly growing, and, in some markets, they are displacing cash at the point of sale. Brazil, Paraguay, Ghana, the Bahamas, Thailand and Cambodia were among the countries where this pattern was visible. Yet in others, digital channels are used mainly to move money before it is withdrawn as cash. Kenya, Eswatini, Cambodia and Jordan illustrate this interaction.
The result is not a clean substitution of one payment method for another, but a layered ecosystem in which digital and physical money perform different functions.
A major obstacle to understanding these dynamics is poor data on cash circulation and demand drivers. Consumer payment surveys help, but they are often conducted only every two years. Without more granular, timely evidence, policymakers are forced to make strategic decisions about infrastructure, regulation and investment with an incomplete view of public behaviour.
Despite regional differences, the operational pressures facing central banks are remarkably consistent. Demand forecasting was cited by 92% of respondents, logistics and distribution by 85%, and the cost and availability of infrastructure such as ATMs and branches by 72% as their major challenges.
The GCF session focused on high volume economies brought these realities to life through the experiences of Kenya, Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, Mexico and Indonesia. Their priorities differ from those of less-cash economies.
Kenya combines GDP and population growth, inflation and widespread mobile money use with continued expansion of cash. With 38 commercial banks, 90,000 bank agents and 2,300 ATMs, access is comparatively strong, but the central bank is encouraging shared cash centres to improve efficiency.
Türkiye shows how digital acceleration can coexist with robust cash demand. Instant payments, cards, QR codes and online shopping are growing quickly, but cash remains important for under-banked citizens, older people, lower-income households and crisis resilience. The 2023 earthquake and regional instability reinforce the view that physical currency remains essential when systems are disrupted. Türkiye’s wholesale and retail cash infrastructure is extensive, supported by commercial banks, cash-in-transit firms, central bank depots and a decentralised cash management scheme.
Saudi Arabia presents another variation. Cash use at the point of sale has fallen sharply, yet the country must manage the immense seasonal impact of pilgrimage. Around 20 million pilgrims, many of whom rely heavily on cash, arrive in a country of 35 million people. The challenge is therefore not merely domestic payment preference, but the capacity to manage sudden, large-scale cash demand efficiently and reliably.
Mexico underlines the scale of highvolume operations. With 130 million people and 10 billion banknotes in circulation, cash remains deeply embedded despite government promotion of alternative payments. Cash in circulation rose from 1.6 trillion pesos in 2016 to 3.5 trillion in 2026, although growth is slowing. Two state printing works produce about 2.1 billion notes annually, much of it to replace unfit notes withdrawn from circulation.
Indonesia offers perhaps the most ambitious infrastructure response. A vast archipelago with 17,000 islands, 38 provinces and more than 284 million people, it must manage cash across extraordinary geography. Bank Indonesia’s Rupiah Management Blueprint 2030 plans centralised distribution, digitalised infrastructure, a Cash Management Centre and a Main Cash Depot. Its TUKAB system allows interbank transfers of notes and coins under a clear legal framework, reducing dependence on the central bank while improving visibility of cash flows.
Several shared characteristics emerge from these high-volume economies:
The policy implication is clear. The mantra of inevitable cash decline is unhelpful because it discourages investment in the very systems most countries still require. It risks distracting central banks, printers, suppliers and cash-cycle stakeholders from the practical work of forecasting demand, improving logistics, sustaining access, maintaining note quality, strengthening resilience and integrating cash intelligently with digital channels.
The better conclusion is not that cash is immune from change. Its relative share of payments is likely to fall in many countries, and hybrid ecosystems will continue to expand. But the evidence does not support a simple story of disappearance. For much of the world, cash remains a growth product, a tool of inclusion, a store of trust and a source of resilience.
The debate should therefore be rebalanced. Less-cash economies deserve attention, but they should not define the global narrative. The real task is to build payment systems in which digital innovation and cash resilience develop together.
